人口流动规律及其政策含义

人口流动是人力资源配轩优化的根本创新路径,人口流动的一般规律是:如果流动人口为理性行为选择者,在社会制度安排许可的发展环境下,当不同区域和不同产业间形成比较收益差异,存在着流动收益大于流动成本的潜在和现实的各种获利机会时,就必定驱使人们由低收益领域向高必益领域流动,而且比较收益差异量与流动人口的流速、流量正相关,并必然导致产生收益率及人口分布走向平均化的趋势,社会发展也将获得最优化的人力资源配置结果.其相关政策含义:一是人口流动是流动人口的理性选择;二是切实保障公民的自由流动权利;三是利用比较利益差别促进人口流动;四是降低各种不必要的流动成本和流动风险;五是建构人口流动的有效率社会发展框架.     

长江流域2000—2015年生态系统质量及服务变化特征

分析生态系统质量与服务现状及变化特征,有助于准确了解流域生态系统状况与趋势,为流域生态保护与修复的高效管理提供参考依据.采用相对生物量密度与相对植被覆盖度指数以及生态系统服务（土壤保持、防风固沙、洪水调蓄、粮食生产）评估模型,评估2000—2015年长江流域生态系统质量及服务变化特征.结果表明:①2000—2015年,长江流域森林、灌丛以及草地生态系统质量提升显著,56.56%的森林、45.65%的灌丛以及19.26%的草地生态系统质量得到不同程度的提高.②研究期间,长江流域粮食生产、洪水调蓄、土壤保持、防风固沙均呈显著上升趋势,其中粮食生产能力增加13.7%,洪水调蓄功能提升10.1%,土壤保持服务提高19.5%,防风固沙总量增加30.0%.③长江流域生态系统质量不高,处于低与差质量等级的生态系统面积比例在25%~35%之间;受不同类型的自然和人类活动影响,长江流域生态系统质量与服务均存在局部退化现象.研究显示,在生态质量与服务评估的基础上,分区域、分类型实施不同的生态系统保护与恢复途径,是今后长江流域加强生态系统管理的重要途径.      

气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响

借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期（1961—1979年）和影响期（① 1980—1989年、② 1990—1999年、③ 2000—2016年）,利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量（VIC）模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响 ② 期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响 ① 期和 ③ 期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响 ① 期和 ③ 期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响 ② 期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。     

含菌气溶胶扩散对人群的潜在影响风险

为分析生物气溶胶释放对人群潜在影响风险的情况,利用CALPUFF模型定量模拟了2019年7月24~8月20日中牧兰州生物药厂含菌气溶胶扩散、浓度空间分布、对人群潜在健康风险,并结合公开报道的检测数据开展验证.结果显示：生物药厂的含菌气溶胶排放源附近高值区主要集中于厂区四周,影响范围主要以厂区为中心,并向四周逐渐扩散;检测结果中兰州兽研所1#,兰州大学2#地区健康风险比例41.49：1,在模拟的相对风险大小的误差区间（36.15±8.48）范围内,说明本研究含菌气溶胶对人群潜在影响风险的模拟结果可信.     

沈阳市郊区环境空气中醛酮类化合物的污染特征与来源分析

为探究沈阳市郊区环境空气中醛酮类化合物的污染特征,于2017年8月24日—9月2日采用2,4-二硝基苯肼固相吸附/高效液相色谱方法对沈阳市郊区醛酮类化合物进行观测分析,利用美国环境保护局推荐的人体健康风险评价方法对部分有毒有害醛酮类化合物的人体健康风险进行了评价,并利用比值法对醛酮类化合物的来源进行了初步分析.结果表明:醛酮类化合物质量浓度日均值范围为23.16~38.38 μg/m3;质量浓度最高的4种醛酮类化合物依次是丙酮、甲醛、正丁醛和乙醛,其质量浓度日均值的平均值分别为8.71、5.90、5.48和2.95 μg/m3.对·OH消耗速率(L_OH)贡献较大的醛酮类化合物物种是正丁醛、甲醛和乙醛,臭氧生成潜势贡献(OFP)较大的醛酮类化合物物种是甲醛、正丁醛和乙醛,在研究区影响醛酮类化合物光化学反应活性的物种主要是甲醛、乙醛和正丁醛.研究区观测期间,环境空气中甲醛和乙醛的致癌性风险值分别为1.18×10-5和5.91×10-6,对暴露人群存在潜在的致癌风险;乙醛的非致癌风险值为0.05,对暴露人群不存在非致癌风险.在研究区的一次臭氧轻度污染过程期间,环境空气中的甲醛和乙醛受天然源排放的挥发性有机物二次转化的影响减弱,甲醛、乙醛和丙酮受到炼焦工业和机动车等人为源排放的影响增强,而正丁醛主要受当地精细化工产业排放的影响.研究显示,沈阳市应加大对炼焦工业、精细化工和机动车来源排放醛酮类化合物的管制,以降低环境空气中活性醛酮类化合物及有毒有害醛酮类化合物的浓度.      

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants

Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants.     

Obligations to animals are based on rights

Some feminist philosophers criticize the idea of human rights because, they allege, it encapsulates male bias; it is therefore misguided, in their view, to extend moral rights to non-human animals. I argue that the feminist criticism is misguided. Ideas are not biased in favour of men simply because they originate with men, nor are ideas themselves biased in favour of men because men have used them prejudicially. As for the position that women should abandon theories of rights and embrace an ethic that emphasizes care: women who made this choice would not so much liberate themselves from the patriarchy as they would conform to its representation of women as emotional, subjective and irrational. There is, then, no good reason to withhold ascribing rights to non-human animals, based on the criticisms of rights made by some feminists.Some of the material in the discussion of the feminist critique of rights originally appeared in my The Case for Animal Rights: A Decade's Passing inA Quarter Century of Value Inquiry: Presidential Addresses of the American Society of Value Inquiry, edited by Richard T. Hull, pp. 451–455. Amsterdam and Atlanta, GA: Rodopi, 1994. These passages are reprinted with the permission of the editor and publisher, whose thoughtful co-operation is gratefully acknowledged.     

城市人居环境的协调发展度研究——以上海市青浦区为例

城市人居环境的可持续发展体系是一个由人口、社会、资源、环境与经济5个子系统构成的开放巨系统。通过提出综合衡量系统“协调性”和“发展水平”的“协调发展度”模型，研究人居环境复合系统内5个子系统之间协调发展度情况。并运用灰色预测理论构建GM（1，N）动态模型，预测未来几年各子系统之间协调发展的状况。